Dubai has long lived by the adage that more is more, and this year’s edition of the biennial air show stands to fulfill that principle.
Emirates, already the world’s largest international airline, is poised to kick off the first day of the event with a major aircraft order to renew its widebody fleet. President Tim Clark has publicly declared that he’s in the market for more than 100 planes, possibly buying from both Airbus SE and Boeing Co.
Now Turkish Airlines is muscling into the event, planning to one-up the local champion with a giant order for about 350 aircraft, according to people familiar with the negotiations. Airbus Chief Executive Officer Guillaume Faury stopped over in Istanbul ahead of the show, with a photo published in state-run media of him in a celebratory mood, shaking hands with Turkish Air Chairman Ahmet Bolat. Airbus declined to comment on any agreements with customers ahead of the event.
With Turkish and Emirates charging into Monday with potentially massive deals, the Dubai show stands to set a record last seen a decade ago, when airlines rang in more than $100 billion in commitments on a single day. While such lofty numbers may be out of reach this time, the frenzy will nevertheless signal that the aviation industry is back from the pandemic, and that airlines wishing to participate in the surge must act fast or risk being relegated to the bottom of an increasingly long wait list for planes.
Airbus is largely sold out on its bestselling single-aisle A320 family, and slots are becoming scarce, too, for the large widebody jets. The company is raising output on its A350 model to 10 a month in 2026. But even that increase won’t do much to cut back the backlog. Even without any orders from Turkish and Emirates, Airbus is approaching a record order haul last booked in the middle of last decade.
Boeing is also trying to rush more aircraft out of its factories, but both companies are still contending with bottlenecks mainly on the supplier side.
Customers, on the other hand, are placing ever-larger orders. Accords for several hundred jets — previously a rare phenomenon — are becoming the order of the day. From Irish low-cost carrier Ryanair Holdings Plc to newcomer Riyadh Air and stalwarts like United Airlines Holdings Inc., buyers from around the globe have splurged. Indian airlines alone made close to 1,000 purchases this year.
The order from Turkish Air could be announced on Monday on the heels of the Emirates accord, people familiar with the talks said, who asked not to be identified discussing private negotiations. The discussions continue, and the final tally of firm and optional purchases might still change, the people cautioned.
As it stands now, the airline is considering 75 A350-900 models and 15 of the larger A350-1000 variant, according to the people. The Turkish flagship carrier is also discussing the acquisition of 250 A321neo single-aisle jets as well as a handful of A350 freighter models, they said.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was reelected in May, has championed a strong national carrier to help put Turkey and its $900 billion economy on the global map. The airline says it flies to the most countries in the world, using its hub in Istanbul as a major transfer airport. Turkish has said publicly for months that it wants to place a big order as it aims to almost double its fleet in the next decade.
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Officials for the Turkish government declined to comment. The Turkish state is the largest single shareholder in the airline.
The jostling for deals in Dubai is reminiscent of the rush that characterised the show a decade ago. Back then, Emirates led the way, but regional rivals Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways were not far behind, each joining the rush with deals of their own.
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This time round, neither of those two airlines is expected to make any massive announcements, showing how the balance of power is shifting in the region and how Erdogan is wielding his airline as a powerful symbol of his country’s global ambitions.
Turkish Airlines plans to expand its fleet to 435 aircraft in 2023 from 429 as of Sept. 30, the carrier said this month. The airline expects to have more than 800 planes by 2033 and serve 400 destinations by then, up from 339 now.
--With assistance from Selcan Hacaoglu, Onur Ant, Leen Al-Rashdan, Inci Ozbek, Firat Kozok and Charlotte Ryan.
