An interest rate cut by India’s central bank next year can boost the country’s bond market that has already witnessed its biggest ever low-grade local debt sale this year, according to Deutsche Bank.
“If there are 25-50 basis points rate cuts next year as being forecast, we anticipate the market to take off as well,” Amrish Baliga, managing director and head of financing & solutions group at Deutsche Bank India, told Bloomberg Television on Friday.
There is a lot of depth as far as rupee bond market is concerned, he said.
READ: India to Be Among First With Asia Rate Cuts, Morgan Stanley Says
Earlier in June, Goswami Infratech Pvt., a property firm controlled by billionaire Shapoor Mistry, raised 143 billion rupees ($1.7 billion) offering 18.75%, setting a new benchmark in the high-yield market. Deutsche was one of the arrangers to the sale. The lender also participated in the Adani Group’s $3.5 billion funding package in October to refinance debt used to purchase Ambuja Cements Ltd. and ACC Ltd.
Baliga expects 2024 to be another bumper year for the offshore market as Indian borrowers continue to raise loans. FX loans from companies have risen nearly 50% to $20.1 billion this year, with the nation’s biggest firm Reliance Industries garnering about a quarter of the pie, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
A revival in the global dollar bond market depends on inflation trajectory as some issuers are waiting in the wings, Baliga said.
“Inflation is the elephant in the room,” he added.
--With assistance from Haslinda Amin, Rishaad Salamat and Anand Menon.
