By Nathan Layne
(Reuters) -Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is expected to be the biggest target of his Republican rivals for the 2024 U.S. presidential nomination at Wednesday's first primary debate, after front-runner Donald Trump opted to skip the event.
DeSantis is among eight Republican hopefuls set to be on stage at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee with one glaring exception. The former president, who holds a strong lead in opinion polls, instead sat for a pre-recorded interview with conservative commentator Tucker Carlson, due to air at 9 p.m. ET (0100 GMT) just as the debate begins, potentially siphoning off viewers.
With Trump absent, Republican candidates including tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamay and U.S. Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, who have enjoyed a bump in some state and national polls in recent weeks, will be looking to displace DeSantis as the most plausible Trump alternative.
"He's going to be a punching bag," said Brian Darling, a Republican strategist and former senior aide to U.S. Senator Rand Paul. "DeSantis is considered a wounded candidate going the wrong way."
DeSantis, for his part, will be looking to draw a line under a slow but steady slide in the polls this summer. Aides and allies view the debate as a high-stakes opportunity to shift the narrative away from turmoil that has gripped his campaign in recent weeks, including a significant staffing shake-up, and to introduce the governor to millions of voters who have yet to tune into the primary process.
"From the campaign's perspective, he's going to be center stage. Everyone on stage is going to be shooting at him," said one person close to DeSantis, who was granted anonymity to discuss internal campaign dynamics. "He doesn't need a knockout blow, but he's got to take advantage of the opportunity of all this airtime."
Martha MacCallum, a Fox News host who will moderate the debate alongside colleague Bret Baier, indicated in an interview with Vanity Fair last week that they will press the candidates to address Trump's four criminal indictments.
The candidates are also expected to use the debate to attack China, which most have described as the United States' top economic and geopolitical foe. Former UN Ambassador and presidential candidate Nikki Haley said in an interview with The Washington Post published on Wednesday that she would send troops to defend Taiwan in the event of an attack by China.
The debate will be held one day before Trump plans to surrender in Atlanta in connection with his indictment in Georgia on charges he sought to overturn his 2020 election loss in the state.
Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, a former close Trump adviser turned vocal critic, will likely amplify his attacks on the former president. Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson and former Vice President Mike Pence, who broke with his former boss after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, may also take shots at Trump.
WARY OF TARGETING TRUMP
But Jeanette Hoffman, a Republican political consultant, said the other candidates will likely refrain from criticizing Trump for fear of upsetting his supporters, whose votes they will need to win the Republican nomination. Polls show that most Republicans view the criminal charges against Trump as politically motivated, making the topic a tricky one to navigate for his rivals.
"He's still in the room because every Republican primary candidate is going to have to take a position on the former president and his legal troubles," Hoffman said. "It's a bit of a Catch-22 for some candidates. They don't want Trump to be the candidate but they also can't be the one to take him out."
The expected eight participants include Scott, Ramaswamy, and Haley in addition to DeSantis, Christie, Hutchinson and Pence.
It was unclear whether North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum would be able to stand for the debate, after he injured his leg playing basketball, spokesperson Lance Trover said.
In the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll released this month, Trump held 47% of the Republican vote nationally, with DeSantis dropping six percentage points from July to 13%. None of the other candidates have broken out of single digits.
Both Darling and Hoffman said they saw the potential for Ramaswamy, a skilled orator who has climbed into the third spot in several national polls, to gain ground. Ramaswamy's policy positions are mostly deeply conservative and he has been a staunch supporter of Trump.
The DeSantis campaign is anticipating particularly harsh broadsides from Ramaswamy and Christie, a person close to the governor said.
Christopher Wlezien, a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin who has studied the electoral impact of debates, said he was skeptical that any contender would achieve a breakout moment on Wednesday.
"My expectations were low for big changes to begin with and it's even more so because Trump is not there," he said.
(Reporting by Nathan Layne, additional reporting by Gram Slattery and Susan Heavey; Editing by Scott Malone, Ross Colvin, Deepa Babington, Nick Zieminski and Daniel Wallis)
